This story first appeared in Power Shift, The Yappie's weekly newsletter on national AAPI power, politics, and influence. Subscribe for free here.
AAPI voters helped Democrats take back Congress last week. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the blue tsunami is enough to sustain that relationship into 2028.
Democrats clinched a staggering victory in the midterms. Not only will they control Congress, they also won several key statewide seats across the country, flipping solid red state houses in Texas and North Carolina.
- It shocked people on both sides of the aisle.
AAPI voters have long leaned Democratic. Multiple post-election voter analyses tell us how exactly they showed up this year.
Among likely 2026 voters of any race who chose Donald Trump in 2024, about 7% voted for a Democratic U.S. House candidate this year, according to data from UChicago NORC’s Civic Health & Elections Project.
- Among AAPI voters, that share surges to 18%. And in battleground states, 21% of AAPIs who voted for Trump in 2024 crossed over to vote for a Democratic Senate candidate this year.
- 84% young AAPI women voted for Democratic House candidates, just behind young Black women (86%), per Tufts University’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.
- And despite concerns about the male loneliness epidemic contributing to rightward shifts, 79% of young AAPI men voted for a Democratic House candidate—the highest of all racial groups.
Comparing 2024 to 2026, AAPIs had the second-largest partisan swing (9 points) from Republican to Democrat—just behind Latinos, according to a nationwide survey led by the African American Research Collaborative and BSP Research.
Democratic approval might not be the takeaway, however.
- In battleground states, the share of 2024 Kamala Harris voters who switched to GOP House candidates was about 6% among AAPI voters, NORC findings show.
- Among voters of any race, it was about 3%.
Crossover isn’t the whole story, either. Democrats held a clear advantage among previously inactive AAPI voters, per AAPI Data’s analysis.
- Of likely 2026 voters who didn’t cast a ballot in 2024, 76% chose a Democratic House candidate this year.
- In that same group, 22% went for a GOP House candidate. (The breakdown among voters who stayed home in 2022 was similar.)
The remainder: “When you do the subtraction, you will see that it’s very likely Trump voters were more likely to stay home this election than Harris voters,” AAPI Data Executive Director Karthick Ramakrishnan said during a post-election briefing.
- He added that this midterm once again highlighted how AAPIs are more likely to vote on issues than party.
Unsurprisingly, the economy and jobs, health care, and the Iran War are the most important issues for AAPI voters this year.
- Nearly 9 in 10 also support immigration reform that includes a pathway to citizenship and family unity, an APIAVote analysis found.
- Almost 60% say they are somewhat or very worried that they, their family, or their community could be targeted by government policies because of their race, ethnicity, religion, language, immigration status, or national origin.
Caveat: Keep in mind that sample sizes for AAPI respondents were small, meaning there could’ve been a relatively high margin of error. Poll results may still change as they’re reweighted.
Our take: As data has historically shown, Democrats should be cautious of taking AAPI voters for granted.
- State and local governments, which could help expand insurance coverage and lower childcare costs, might help Democrats build that momentum to produce results by the deadline.
- With conservatives still in control of the White House and Supreme Court, the clock is ticking for Democrats to deliver on lower cost of living and improved health care access before 2028—especially as they look to maintain House control and retake the presidency.
About The Yappie: The Yappie is an independent, nonprofit newsroom dedicated to tracking Asian American and Pacific Islander power, politics, and influence. Learn more at theyappie.com/about.
