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GOP gains among AAPI voters could jeopardize Democrats’ control of Congress

Democrats saw Asian American and Pacific Islander support shift to Republicans in 11 battleground states last year, according to a progressive group’s post-election analysis.
Photos courtesy of the White House.
Photos courtesy of the White House.

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Despite record-breaking surges in registration and turnout, Democrats appeared to lose Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters to the GOP in key swing states across the 2016 and 2020 cycles, according to a comprehensive post-election study published by the progressive group Way to Win—a sign that could spell trouble as the party seeks to keep control of Congress next year.

The report analyzes 64.8 million voters in 11 battleground states who cast ballots last year based on data provided by the political data firm TargetSmart, with a special focus on emerging trends heading into the midterm elections. It also includes “programmatic impact data” from grassroots organizations such the Georgia-based Asian American Advocacy Fund and APIA Nevada.

In Georgia, where Asian Americans contributed to Democrats’ victory in the Senate runoffs, 10% fewer AAPI voters were modeled to have supported Democrats compared to 2016. “That loss ultimately pushed AAPI support to fall from modeled majority Democratic support to majority Republican with this demographic,” the analysis states.

"Of those who voted in Georgia, 10% fewer are modeled to have supported Democrats in 2020 compared to 2016," according to Way to Win's analysis.

Other swing states experienced erosion, too, Way to Win found. 8.5% fewer AAPI voters supported the party in Texas in 2020, leading to a similar shift to modeled majority Republican backing. Republican gains among first-time voters of color and younger voters also helped push AAPIs’ Democratic support down 7.5% in Florida, 6.3% in Nevada, 6% in both Colorado and North Carolina, and 4.2% in Michigan.

Democrats suffered their biggest decline in Virginia, with AAPI support modeled to have fallen by 11.2% in 2020—though most AAPI voters in the state remain Democrats.

A historic trend of negligence

Way to Win’s leaders attributed the shifts to the Democratic Party’s historic lack of early investment in AAPI voter mobilization, and pointed to similar trends among Black and Latinx communities.

Very few political dollars go towards targeting AAPIs, according to Way to Win co-founder and President Tory Gavito. “I wouldn't pretend to give you a number off the top of my head, but it would be shockingly anemic,” Gavito told The Yappie.

“It would be negligent for Democrats not to spend early resources to introduce themselves and their ideas to the AAPI community” ahead of 2022 midterm elections, she added. “That’s how we lose.”

"When Asian American voters register to vote, they turn out."

Failure to sway AAPI voters in future cycles could result in dire consequences for the party, since Democratic wins in the 2020 and 2021 cycles have been attributed to high turnout among voters of color. President Joe Biden’s victory last November was heavily dependent on a multiracial coalition that comprised 41.4% of his total vote share, according to Way to Win. By comparison, voters of color only made up 8.4% of Donald Trump’s. 

AAPIs’ affinity toward Democrats, however, was largely a result of community organizers working on the ground. 

In the lead-up to January’s Senate runoffs, Georgia Democrats recruited political operative Linh Nguyen to develop and pilot a program for combating disinformation and mobilizing voters on Asian ethnic media platforms. Nguyen’s team was pivotal to Asian Americans’ subsequent turnout and vote for Democratic Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff.

In contrast, the president’s team only aimed for AAPIs with large-scale ad and publicity campaigns in the last few weeksand days—before Election Day.

Avoiding the ‘scarcity mindset’

Way to Win’s report does not offer disaggregated results due to the limitations of TargetSmart’s voter files and models, according to the group’s senior director of political strategy Colleen Loper. But its insights are backed up by pre-election polls that do offer breakdowns by ethnicity—such as the 2020 Asian American Voter Survey, which found groups like Vietnamese and Indian Americans moving to the right following Trump’s 2016 upset.

“Voters of color are receiving a tremendous amount of cross pressure from the right in a way that is persuasive. They’re giving people of color a reason to vote for conservatives, and they did make some traction” in 2020, Gavito noted.

"If turnout trends persist, high-potential Asian American Pacific Islander voters will continue to have a major influence in elections."

Both Gavito and Loper emphasized that the AAPI electorate’s rapid growth—and Democrats’ increasing reliance on voters of color—guarantees that AAPIs will be a deciding factor in future elections. Campaigns can no longer assume they will vote for Democrats or ignore opportunities to invest in data and in-language outreach programs, Gavito said.

“People often, especially in midterms, get the scarcity mindset. And they’re going to want to talk to voters who turn out in midterms,” Loper said. “If you only talk to those who are already activated, then we’re going to miss a large swath of people that came out for the very first time—or for the very first time in a long time—in 2018 or 2020.”

“Democrats, I think, believe that their funding is finite, and therefore the funding that is used to go to communities should be used for the most efficient thing possible, and for the least experimental,” Gavito added. “That mindset drives you to only talk to people you know are going to vote and keeps you from thinking: ‘What if we put in all kinds of resources to new places like Georgia?’”

The GOP, on the other hand, is “very much open” to trying out as many communication channels as possible, according to Gavito. “There’s a norm within the Republican Party to test new things all the time.”

What comes next

Roughly 70% of Asian American voters backed Biden last year amid a rise in hate incidents and skyrocketing Asian unemployment rates, according to multiple exit polls. Whether Democrats can hold an edge with AAPIs in 2022 will be determined by their strategy over the next few months. 

Advocacy groups have long criticized both parties’ lack of consistent outreach, arguing that AAPI-specific ad campaigns deployed in the last weeks of elections—such as the Democratic National Committee’s recent ad push for former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) less than a month before the state’s gubernatorial election—fail to properly educate community members.

Disinformation has also played a role in swaying voters. It’s a threat both parties will have to navigate with unverified sources constantly flooding ethnic media platforms like WeChat, WhatsApp, and Kakao. 

Recent polling offers clues of possible paths forward. A POLITICO/Morning Consult survey released earlier this month found that the chaotic 2020 cycle appeared to unify most AAPI adults around the belief that violence, discrimination, and white supremacy are major threats. While AAPIs put more trust in Democrats to handle major policy priorities such as health care and the economy, Republicans could win over some critics by distancing themselves from Trump, whom most respondents hold somewhat responsible for the rise in anti-Asian discrimination.

Both parties also need a more aggressive, year-round engagement strategy that doesn’t simply focus on traditional topics like immigration or education, the survey indicates. The Republican National Committee has already launched AAPI outreach centers in California’s Little Saigon and Georgia’s Gwinnett County.

“The 2020 cycle taught us that multiracial coalitions really are the path to the future of democracy, really are where Democrats need to be spending their time,” Gavito said. “It’s not a magic wand. Just talking to voters of color and saying, ‘You know, it’s time to vote,’ is not enough.”

“We have to get bolder with the way we use these resources to try to dream up new realities,” she added. “We have to see that every member of our democracy should be a part of the American electorate.”


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