This story first appeared in Power Shift, The Yappie's weekly newsletter on national AAPI power, politics, and influence. Subscribe for free here.
Democrats are predicted to regain political power this election cycle. But by exactly how much is less certain, as Republicans navigate a series of competitive elections that are in large part a referendum on the Trump administration.
- Several Asian American candidates are on the frontlines of these races.
In Florida’s redrawn 22nd congressional district, Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar are both leaning into affordability planks.
- Dandiya, a former teacher and daughter of Indian immigrants, has focused on lowering costs of living by ending tariffs and protecting Social Security, according to the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
- A pro-Trump business owner whose family fled religious persecution in Iraq, Askar supports raising the child tax credit and eliminating the federal gas tax. He also voiced support for ICE deportation efforts in the district, per Gulf Coast News Now.
- Results may be indicative of the degree to which affordability sways swing voters in the toss-up election—the southern Florida district went for President Trump in 2024 but Joe Biden in 2020.
On the other side of the Sun Belt, the race forArizona’s 1st congressional district also looks like a close one—and independents will likely be the deciding factor, The Guardian reports.
- Democrat Amish Shah, an emergency room doctor, former state legislator, and son of Indian immigrants, is running for a seat he narrowly lost in 2024 to current Rep. David Schweikert, who chose not to run for re-election.
- Republican Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker who at one point played for the New York Jets while Shah was team doctor, has Trump’s endorsement.
- Feely has sought to portray Shah as a socialist, while Shah has emphasized Feely’s connection to Trump, per The Guardian.
- The district is in suburban Phoenix, where voters have helped elect Democratic governors and U.S. senators while supporting Republicans locally. Though Schweikert has held on to the increasingly purple district, he represents a vanishing lane of moderate Republicans.
California’s 45th congressional district could give a preview at how some previously close seats are shifting left.
- Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran handily beat Republican challenger Chuong Vo in the primary—a sharp contrast from 2024, when he barely bested then-incumbent GOP Rep. Michelle Steel.
- While redistricting may have given Tran a bit of breathing room, the difference suggests a stark dissatisfaction with national Republicans.
- The district, anchored by Little Saigon and suburban Orange County, is one of the most Asian in the U.S., census data shows. Both Tran and Vo are children of Vietnamese refugees.
Here are the other races we’re watching…
Gerrymandering gambit: California passed a ballot measure last year to counterbalance GOP efforts to shore up seats by adopting a redrawn congressional map that favors Democrats. But it hasn’t been all clear wins.
- In District 6, Democrat Richard Pan barely eked into the general election during the primary, according to CBS News.
- His opponent, Republican Kevin Kiley, represents neighboring District 3 in Congress. After it was redrawn to pick up votes from the more Democratic Sacramento area, Kiley chose to run in District 6 as an independent.
MAGA vs. MAGA: Redistricting could also lead to the ousting of one of Congress’ few Asian American Republicans—California Rep. Young Kim.
- The redrawn map pits Kim against GOP Rep. Ken Calvert, who currently serves California’s 41st district, in a battle for District 40—now encompassing parts of Orange and Riverside counties, per NBC Los Angeles.
- The race might actually come down to Democratic voters—who aren’t super excited about it either, the Los Angeles Times reports.
Future of San Francisco: Looking to succeed Nancy Pelosi, City Supervisor Connie Chan and state Sen. Scott Wiener are locked in a tight race featuring different flavors of progressivism. They’ve clashed over the Hamas-Israel war, AI regulation, housing, and labor, per CalMatters.
- Pelosi has endorsed Chan, who would be the first Asian American to represent San Francisco if elected.
Data center tensions: In Virginia’s 10th congressional district, incumbent Democrat Suhas Subramanyam faces Republican Dave Beckwith, who has criticized the former for not doing enough to stop development in Virginia’s Data Center Alley, InsideNoVa reports.
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